30 Climate Change Death Pools
Everybody in! The water’s warm! And getting warmer!
It is way past time to start taking the Climate Catastrophe seriously. But that doesn’t mean we can’t have some fun with it! And make bank!
Who wants in on the Climate Change Death Pools? Guess the first year in which each climate catastrophe will occur! For each event, pick a year and put $5 into the betting pool. All bets should be sent to The Founders Pledge Climate Change Fund.
Pool #1: First major US city to be destroyed
POOL CLOSED. New Orleans, 2005.
Pool #2: First country-wide blackout
POOL CLOSED. Pakistan. Now.
Pool #3: Mississippi River runs dry
POOL CLOSED:
Pool #4: Colorado River runs dry
POOL CLOSED: GPT-4 (bing.com/new) says:
The river runs out of water after crossing into Mexico on July 6, 2022, in Mexicali, Baja California. The river’s natural path becomes only sand and weeds less than a mile after crossing the border in Mexicali, Mexico.
Pool #5: First million-death heat event, international
My bet: 2025
Pool #6: First million-death heat event in the USA
My bet: 2028
Pool #7: First 10 million-death heat event, international
My bet: 2030
Pool #8: First 10 million-death heat event in the USA
My bet: 2036
Pool #9: First country-wide wildfires
POOL CLOSED. Canada. Now.
Pool #10: First mega methane burp
My bet: 2029
Pool #11: Antarctica’s Thwaites glacier collapses
My bet: 2024
Pool #12: Miami, Florida abandoned
My bet: 2035
Pool #13: New Orleans, Louisiana abandoned
My bet: 2037
Pool #14: The population of Phoenix, Arizona begins declining
My bet: 2027, though for the life of me, I cannot understand why it is still growing
Pool #15: “The Big One” earthquake ≥ 8.0 magnitude hits West Coast USA (possibly triggered by redistribution of earth’s weight due to glacier and polar ice melt)
My bet: 2031
Pool #16: Martial law imposed in major US city in 21st century
My bet: 2031
According to GPT-4 (bing.com/new), referencing wikipedia, martial law has been imposed at least 68 times in limited, usually local areas of the United States, though not since the turn of the century. For example, it was declared in Hawaii after the bombing of Pearl Harbor.
Pool #17: Martial law imposed across the USA
My bet: 2036 (much sooner if Trump attains the Presidency in 2024, though it may be blue-state only)
Pool #18: First island nation sinks beneath the waves
My bet: 2042 (but it was abandoned a decade earlier because of storm surge)
Pool #19: Next pandemic (non-Covid)
My bet: 2027
Pool #20: First famine in a NATO country in the 21st century
My bet: 2025
Pool #21: First famine in some region of the USA in the 21st century
My bet: 2027
Pool #22: Next major illegal invasion of another country (including China invades Taiwan)
My bet: 2025
Pool #23: End of the Internet
My bet: 2029
Pool #24: Hoover Dam at Lake Mead stops generating electricity
My bet: 2028
Pool #25: Global warming breaches 1.5dC threshold for a day
Pool closed: A day in June 2023 was said to have breached the 1.5dC threshold. However, according to this reference:
“The first time in this time series where a monthly average appears above the 1.5dC level was in December 2015.” In addition, from the same reference, “It must be stressed that the 1.5dC and 2dC limits set in the Paris Agreement are targets for the average temperature of the planet over the twenty or thirty-year periods typically used to define climate.
Pool #26: Global warming breeches 2dC threshold for a day
My bet: 2026
Pool #27: Global warming breeches 3dC threshold for a day
My bet: 2029
Pool #28: Global warming breeches 4dC threshold for a day
My bet: 2032
Pool #29: Global warming breeches 6dC threshold for a day
My bet: 2035
Pool #30: This author’s death
My bet: 2030 RIP, me at age 75 — epithet: She was amusing.
Note: Author is ineligible to win Pool #30 because she is capable of making it a self-fulfilling prophecy. Management does not want to incentivize that!
This article is satire for entertainment and thought provocation only. No bets will be paid out.
— Lannie Rose, July 2023
preferred pronouns: she/her/hers
GPT-4 (bing.com/new) used heavily for research and as attributed
